This was a small story that grabbed my attention today. Amidst all the talk about crude inventories increasing by 700,000 in the US and shipments of crude to China dropping over last year, this is the one that intrigues me the most.
In February China sold 827,600 units in comparison to 688,909 in the US. They sold 735,000 in January. The trend is showing even higher sales expected in March. Why is this?
Part of China's latest initiatives is to provide subsidies to farmers to purchase vehicles as well as cutting sales taxes on small engine passenger vehicles that are more fuel efficient, especially in the country side.
These types of numbers will not have an immediate and direct impact on the price of crude, but as more and more Chinese start to take to the roads, the inevitable will be an increased demand on oil.
This will be an interesting stat to watch.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Monday, March 9, 2009
Oil Supply Cutbacks
The market is expecting OPEC to cut another million barrels out of the production pipeline after their meeting this weekend. That would bring the total production down by 5 million barrels per day. At an 80% compliance factor that would still be 4million a day.
My thoughts on this is that with the supply now coming more inline with demand there is more potential for smaller events to have more influence on the price of oil. For example today, a couple of Chinese destroyers were harrasing an unarmed US Navy vessel in international waters off the coast of China. The advent of potential political tensions, coupled with the belief that OPEC would cut back supply further sent crude to over $47.
Weather, political tensions, militant terrorism, mechanical problems, unions - all have the ability to affect the price of oil on the world market. I think that as supply reductions continue to take hold the potential for wild swings in prices to the upside are growing.
My thoughts on this is that with the supply now coming more inline with demand there is more potential for smaller events to have more influence on the price of oil. For example today, a couple of Chinese destroyers were harrasing an unarmed US Navy vessel in international waters off the coast of China. The advent of potential political tensions, coupled with the belief that OPEC would cut back supply further sent crude to over $47.
Weather, political tensions, militant terrorism, mechanical problems, unions - all have the ability to affect the price of oil on the world market. I think that as supply reductions continue to take hold the potential for wild swings in prices to the upside are growing.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Monday, March 2, 2009
Pending Oil Crisis
In reading the news stories and headlines over the past several months the world is being set up for an impending energy crisis that will make this past summer seem trivial.
With oil prices at their current levels the financial cost to producing energy is already starting to hamper current production. When oil begins trading in the $30-$40 range there are only few countries that can produce profitably at this price, Saudia Arabia being the main country that can. At these prices in makes sense for companies to simply stop production until prices rise again. The problem being that it is much easier to shut down production than it is to increase production.
Here in Alberta, companies are starting to lay off workers in the oil and gas sectors that do most of their business in the oil sands. Oil needs to be in the $70-$80 range to produce a profit. On the corporate side of the coin companies are doing the responsible thing by cutting back on projects and preserving capital while some are even acquiring smaller companies for the assets.
But on the commodity side all of these cutbacks will crimp the supply. The fact of the matter is there is no viable alternative to oil right now and we are still burning throught a supply that is non renewable. OPEC cuts to supply are starting to make their way into the system and my thought right now is that while the price is volotile and you need a strong stomach to ride the waves, the short to long term fundamentals are pointing towards a serious oil crisis.
Regardless of how the economy is doing or how well a company has access to credit, there is little to nothing a consumer or company can do if there is a shortage of energy supply. Governments have little to no control over energy prices as they are at the mercy of supply and demand.
In the short term interest of the economy we need higher oil prices if simply to keep the supply constant.
I'm continuing to increase my holdings in oil ETF's over this period of surpluss supply with the idea that these extrememly low oil prices will inevitably lead to drastically higher prices.
With oil prices at their current levels the financial cost to producing energy is already starting to hamper current production. When oil begins trading in the $30-$40 range there are only few countries that can produce profitably at this price, Saudia Arabia being the main country that can. At these prices in makes sense for companies to simply stop production until prices rise again. The problem being that it is much easier to shut down production than it is to increase production.
Here in Alberta, companies are starting to lay off workers in the oil and gas sectors that do most of their business in the oil sands. Oil needs to be in the $70-$80 range to produce a profit. On the corporate side of the coin companies are doing the responsible thing by cutting back on projects and preserving capital while some are even acquiring smaller companies for the assets.
But on the commodity side all of these cutbacks will crimp the supply. The fact of the matter is there is no viable alternative to oil right now and we are still burning throught a supply that is non renewable. OPEC cuts to supply are starting to make their way into the system and my thought right now is that while the price is volotile and you need a strong stomach to ride the waves, the short to long term fundamentals are pointing towards a serious oil crisis.
Regardless of how the economy is doing or how well a company has access to credit, there is little to nothing a consumer or company can do if there is a shortage of energy supply. Governments have little to no control over energy prices as they are at the mercy of supply and demand.
In the short term interest of the economy we need higher oil prices if simply to keep the supply constant.
I'm continuing to increase my holdings in oil ETF's over this period of surpluss supply with the idea that these extrememly low oil prices will inevitably lead to drastically higher prices.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Canadian Banks
So far three of the big five Canadian banks have released their earnings for this period and they are quite impressive given what has been going on all over ther world with bank bailouts.
TD Canada Trust - $712 million dollar profit - Q1
RBC - $1.05 billion dollar profit - Q1
CIBC - $147 million dollar profit - Q1
If this isn't a sign of the strength of the Canadian financial system I don't know what is. While CIBC's profit would be considered unimpressive a few years ago, this is quite significant compared to the $1.46 billion loss they took for Q1 last year.
Considering that the UK has been dumping billions into their banks and the US is easily in the trillions, Canadian banks have not taken one dime from the governement and are posting profits. Yes, that's right, profits.
I think this is prime opportunity for Canadian banks to start buying up some great financial opportunities in the US. This is exactly when the strong need to take over the weak. Maybe its just me, but its time to stop being so frightened and make a few bold moves to increase our position of strength in the world.
TD Canada Trust - $712 million dollar profit - Q1
RBC - $1.05 billion dollar profit - Q1
CIBC - $147 million dollar profit - Q1
If this isn't a sign of the strength of the Canadian financial system I don't know what is. While CIBC's profit would be considered unimpressive a few years ago, this is quite significant compared to the $1.46 billion loss they took for Q1 last year.
Considering that the UK has been dumping billions into their banks and the US is easily in the trillions, Canadian banks have not taken one dime from the governement and are posting profits. Yes, that's right, profits.
I think this is prime opportunity for Canadian banks to start buying up some great financial opportunities in the US. This is exactly when the strong need to take over the weak. Maybe its just me, but its time to stop being so frightened and make a few bold moves to increase our position of strength in the world.
Friday, February 20, 2009
Rick Santelli - The Silent Majority
I watched this on CNBC yesterday morning and Rick hit the nail on the head with this. I know I'm Canadian but I've always admired the US capitalist system to reward hard work and smart decisions.
Three years ago I was ready to make the jump into home ownership, not because I wanted to make a buck on my home but to live in and invest in myself. I watched many friends jump into houses they couldn't afford simply because they wanted to get in on the wave. People then started using their homes as ATM's and are now getting burned, yet it's my tax dollars that they are asking for to help them out.
I ended up not buying a home because the prices were inflated and I couldn't afford it. So I kept renting. Now our government is wasting money on stimulus packages that won't do anything and I'll end up paying higher taxes, preventing me from likely owning my own home in the future.
If someone wants to put up money for a home there is an inherent risk factor that it will go down and not up. That's the risk you take and if you bet wrong, that's tough and hopefully you learned from your mistake.
Getting the people who didn't drink the coolaid to pay for those who did is perverse and wrong and as long as this continues we are doomed to wallow in recession for years to come. Enjoy the rant. I did!
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